This is part one of a two-part series examining President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to stage a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and its economic impact.
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to implement the largest deportation in the nation’s history beginning with his first day in office. However, his plans are sketchy and fraught with legal questions and the cost is open-ended.
Before we go further, let’s get one thing out of the way. Americans of all political views share an almost universal agreement that people entering the country for education, employment or to obtain citizenship, should do so legally. That is not the issue here. This article deals with the cost and logistics of mass deportation.
Trump’s Plan
There is an old saying that the devil is in the details. It is the details that may bedevil Trump’s plan. So, first, let’s take a look at the practicality and expense of mass deportation.
The general plan is to employ local law enforcement and the military along with immigration officers to apprehend suspected undocumented immigrants and place them in detention facilities. There, each person’s case would be reviewed in court. Those determined to be in the country illegally would be flown to their home country or another country that would give them refuge.
One problem with that idea is that officials in sanctuary cities may not help federal immigration officers. Denver Mayor Mike Johnson has pledged to go to jail to resist Trump’s deportation plans.
Johnson is not alone. Various jurisdictions across the United States have sanctuary laws in place. Those include 11 states, the District of Columbia, and several hundred cities and counties.
Sanctuary laws prohibit local law enforcement and government officials from assisting federal immigration enforcement.
Implementing Mass Deportation
Deporting all undocumented immigrants would be an expensive and daunting undertaking. Tom Homan, Trump’s “border czar” acknowledged that fact.
“The bottom line is: Can Tom Homan remove 10 million people in a year? No. I’m not going to lie to you,” Homan said. “But we’re going to be out there looking for them [and] when we find them, remove them.”
Vice President-elect J. D. Vance has suggested that removing one million undocumented immigrants a year is a more realistic goal. However, even that figure seems like a stretch considering that Trump removed about 1.5 million illegal immigrants during his entire first administration. That put him just behind the president who oversaw the most deportations of any administration – Barack Obama. From 2009 to 2016, 3.06 million immigrants were removed from the country. Add border returns and “self-deportations” and the number grows to 5.24 million.
Homan, Trump, and Vance have all said the plan will prioritize undocumented immigrants with criminal records and those under deportation orders by a court. From there the hunt for illegal aliens will turn to the workplace.
The number of undocumented immigrants is generally put at somewhere over 11 million. That figure represents about 3.3% of the population.
No Price Tag
To round up and deport over 11 million illegal immigrants will take a lot of money. Suppose you add legal immigrants who live with an illegal spouse or parents, and the numbers balloon. That said, Trump is well aware of the challenges. He has been here before.
During this year’s presidential campaign, Trump echoed his 2016 campaign vow to deport all undocumented immigrants. By 2017, Trump amended his pledge to focus on illegals with criminal records. This year he is back to getting everybody.
Trump vowed, “We’re going to have the largest deportation in the history of our country,” at a September news conference. Of course, he has never specified the cost of such a plan.
“It’s not a question of a price tag. It’s not — really, we have no choice. When people have killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries, and now they’re going to go back to those countries because they’re not staying here. There is no price tag.” Trump said in a post-election interview with NBC.
The Cost of Mass Deportation
Trump may not have a price tag for deportation, but there are financial costs.
Deportation entails apprehending the individual, placing them in detention, having their case heard in court, and transporting him/her out of the country.
All that costs money. A CBS analysis in October estimated that it costs an average of $19,599 to deport one person. That same analysis determined that it would cost $216 billion to deport 11 million people over the next four years. The American Immigration Council put the figure at $315 billion.
Both of those estimates may be low considering the backlog of cases in immigration courts. At the beginning of this year, over three million cases were pending in immigration courts. An expedited case can result in removal within a few weeks. Many cases take years to resolve though. Add another 11 million cases to those currently pending and it is anybody’s guess how long the process could take.
A Constitutional Question
Trump often said during the campaign that he would end birthright citizenship on his first day back in office. However, that is impossible if he wants to abide by the law.
The 14th Amendment of the United States Constitution states:
All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and the State wherein they reside.
Trump had indicated he thought he could change the 14th Amendment by executive order. That isn’t entirely true though. Changing any part of the constitution requires a vote of three-quarters of the states (38 of 50).
Birthright Citizenship
Trump has also been off the mark on how many countries offer birthright citizenship.
In his Meet the Press interview, the President-elect claimed that America is the only country with birthright citizenship.
“You know we’re the only country that has it,” said Trump. “Do you know if somebody sets a foot, just a foot, one foot, you don’t need two, on our land, ‘Congratulations you are now a citizen of the United States of America.’ Yes, we’re going to end that because it’s ridiculous.”
However, 33 countries and two territories have birthright citizenship. Another 32 countries offer some form of restricted birthright citizenship.
Deport Like It’s 1798
One way around the Constitution floated by Trump’s team is to dust off some old laws such as the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This law was part of the Alien and Sedition Acts. It is the only one of those laws that was not repealed or allowed to expire. One problem with Trump’s strategy is that the act can only be invoked in times of war.
In part, the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 reads:
. . . whenever there shall be a declared war between the United States and any foreign nation or government, or any invasion or predatory incursion shall be perpetrated, attempted, or threatened against the territory of the United States, by any foreign nation or government, and the President of the United States shall make public proclamation of the event, all natives, citizens, denizens, or subjects of the hostile nation or government, being males of the age of fourteen years and upwards, who shall be within the United States, and not actually naturalized, shall be liable to be apprehended, restrained, secured and removed, as alien enemies.
The act was amended in 1918 to include women. It was last used during World War II and it impacted over 31,000 people born in countries then at war with the United States.
Part two of our review of Donald Trump’s mass deportation plan looks at the impact it may have on consumer prices, jobs, salaries, social security, medicare, and the overall economy.
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