The U.S. economy has a huge problem: the birth rate is plunging to multi-decade lows. But the good news is artificial intelligence may help save the day.
It matters because the growth of the overall economy is determined by the number of people in the country and how much their productivity grows. (For the nerds out there you multiple population growth by productivity growth and the answer shows you the economic growth.)
Here’s what you need to know.
Last year American women gave birth to 1.6 babies on average, according to recent government data. That’s the lowest level since U.S. records began in the 1930s, and almost a century ago.
That low level also doesn’t replace the existing population. To do that the fertility rate needs to be at least two, and that assumes zero deaths in infancy.
While poverty in the Great Depression probably answers why birth rates were so low nine decades ago, there’s a different story now. Since the 1960s women now have easy access to inexpensive contraception, and for most of the last half century American women have also had access to legal abortions.
If the low birth rate of 1.6 per woman continues then sooner or later the population of the U.S. will fall unless the government allows more immigrants into the country try. The latter does not look likely.
Last year a Gallup poll indicated that a mere 26% of the U.S. population wanted to see immigration increased, compared to 41% that wanted it decreased. The remaining 31% wanted no change. In simple terms, it won’t be easy any time soon for elected officials to offset the falling birth rates by changing the immigration quotas.
However, that’s where artificial intelligence may help the issue. If the population isn’t growing, then to grow the economy we need to increase everyone’ productivity.
This isn’t such a radical idea. In the late 19th century new technology such as tractors helped reduce the farm workforce by allowing individual farm workers to do the work previously carried out by many.
AI could likely do the same for many professionals now.
- Research needs to be done? Ask an AI tool to do the research. Currently, some of that research may be off target, but at least the data will be in the hands of the researcher quickly and ready for review.
- A doctor needs a patient’s diagnosis for second opinion? Ask AI. It’s been shown these tools can work and are likely to improve with more development.
- Advertising copy writing is now being embraced by some companies as it allows employees to produce far more output than an un-AI aided individual. In short, AI helps produce more output for a given time period.
- AI is also being utilized to reduce financial fraud.
There are other applications as well.
But when you add a little bit more productivity to a myriad of different tasks across the economy then you get an increase in per capita output. That means each person on average is more productive.
It would seem there is a potential for AI to at least play a part in increasing that productivity and more than outweigh the drop in birth rates.
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