If you collect Social Security, there are two important dates to note. Friday, Sept. 11, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its official August inflation data — the second of three months that set next year’s raise. Wednesday, Oct. 14, the Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA.
Until then, how much of a COLA you’ll receive is still an estimate. Independent analyst Mary Johnson has it near 3.4%. AARP is at 3.5%. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan seniors group, is at 3.6%. All three sit above the 2.8% COLA that began with January 2026 checks. None of these estimates are official.
On the average retired-worker benefit of $2,085.98 in July 2026, a 3.6% raise is about $75 a month. A 3.4% raise is about $71.
There are approximately 60 million Americans enrolled in Medicare Part B. Of these, the vast majority have their premiums deducted from their Social Security check. Medicare Part B costs are projected to rise by $6.60 a month in 2027. This means that for some retirees, much of their COLA will never hit their bank.
The 2027 COLA Forecast To Be Higher Than 2026
The 2027 COLA will be based on third-quarter CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners) from July, August, and September 2026. When the 2026 numbers are compared with the same three months in 2025, the projections are that the 2026 COLA will be slightly higher than the 2025 COLA.
| Forecaster | 2027 COLA estimate | Vs. 2026 COLA (2.8%) |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Johnson | 3.4% | +0.6 pt |
| AARP | 3.5% | +0.7 pt |
| Senior Citizens League | 3.6% | +0.8 pt |
Estimates use July CPI-W only. They will move after Friday’s report.
If the final number lands near 3.6%, it would be the largest percentage increase since 2023. It would still be smaller than the 8.7% COLA paid in 2023, when inflation was running much hotter. The 10-year average COLA has been about 2.8%.
What That Means In Dollars
Your raise is a percentage of your own benefit, not a flat dollar amount. People with larger checks get more dollars. People with smaller checks get fewer. The table below applies the two most-cited estimates to Social Security Administration averages for July 2026.
| Benefit type (July 2026 avg.) | Now | At 3.5% | At 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retired worker ($2,085.98) | $2,085.98 | +$73 → $2,159 | +$75 → $2,161 |
| Spouse of retired worker ($986.53) | $986.53 | +$35 → $1,021 | +$36 → $1,022 |
| Nondisabled widow(er) ($1,932.74) | $1,932.74 | +$68 → $2,000 | +$70 → $2,002 |
| Disabled worker ($1,635.27) | $1,635.27 | +$57 → $1,693 | +$59 → $1,694 |
Source: SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot, July 2026. Dollar figures rounded to the nearest dollar. Individual checks will differ.
To ballpark your own check, multiply your current monthly benefit by 1.034, 1.035, or 1.036. A $1,500 check would rise about $51 to $54. A $2,500 check would rise about $85 to $90.
How Social Security Actually Calculates The COLA
The COLA formula is set by law. The SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September with the average for those same months a year earlier. CPI-W is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. It is not the headline CPI you hear on the evening news, and it is not the experimental CPI-E built around older households.
That distinction matters to retirees. Housing, transportation, food, and healthcare are prioritized differently in an older households than in wage-earner households. In some years the gap is large. So far in 2026, CPI-E has been running close to CPI-W, which is why some advocates say 2027 could be the first year since 2023 that the COLA roughly keeps pace with prices seniors actually pay.
A Number of Other Factors Impact The Amount of Your Check
The check that hits your account will have a number of things impacting it.
Medicare Part B. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a standard Part B premium of about $209.50 a month in 2027, up $6.60 from the confirmed $202.90 in 2026. That would be one of the smaller percentage increases in recent years — about 3.3% — after the $17.90 jump beneficiaries absorbed this year. CMS publishes official 2027 premiums, deductibles, and IRMAA brackets in the fall, usually November. The $209.50 figure can still move.
The Net Math, Using Averages. A 3.5% COLA on a $2,086 retired-worker check is about $73. Subtract a $6.60 Part B increase and the typical net bump is closer to $66 a month, or about $800 a year, if Part B comes out of the check. Your numbers will probably differ.
Hold-Harmless. If your Part B premium is deducted from Social Security, federal rules generally prevent that premium from rising by more than your COLA in dollars. In years when the premium jumps harder than the COLA, some lower-benefit retirees see little or no net increase. A $6.60 premium increase against a $70-plus COLA means hold-harmless is less likely to cap the premium for most people in 2027 than it was in years with fatter Part B hikes. It still applies to people whose dollar COLA is smaller than $6.60.
IRMAA. Higher-income beneficiaries pay an extra adjustment Amount on Part B and Part D. The 2027 surcharge is based on your 2025 tax return. A Roth conversion, a required distribution, or a large capital gain in 2025 can show up as a Medicare surcharge in 2027 even if your income is lower now. Official 2027 IRMAA brackets come with the fall Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announcement. In 2026, the first surcharge starts at $109,000 of modified adjusted gross income for single filers and $218,000 for joint filers.
Part D Premium Stabilization. CMS is ending the temporary Part D premium-stabilization subsidy for 2027. The national base beneficiary premium is set at $41.33, up from $38.99. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act still caps most beneficiary premium growth at 6% a year through 2029, and CMS has said many enrollees will see increases under $10. Annual notice of change letters go out this fall. Medicare Open Enrollment runs Oct. 15 through Dec. 7.
Can The COLA Catch Up Grocery Costs?
Food-at-home prices were 2.7% higher in July 2026 than a year earlier. All food was up 3.0%. Fresh fruits and vegetables have been running hotter than the grocery average. Ground beef is still well above where it sat five years ago. Eggs, which drove much of 2025’s food inflation, have come down.
A 3.5% raise can look decent in a headline and still feel thin if rent, utilities, and the items you actually buy rose faster than CPI-W. Nearly half of older adults who carry credit-card balances have used those cards for food, according to AARP reporting on the squeeze. A COLA does not reset seven years of compounded grocery inflation – they’re designed to preserve purchasing power.
Social Security Funds May Be Depleted In 2032
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is still projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032 under the latest trustees’ report. If Congress does nothing by then, incoming payroll taxes would cover just 78 percent of most scheduled benefits. As of the writing of this article, Congress has not approved comprehesive legislative to address the Social Security shortfall.
That date is why solvency bills are circulating now. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), in an interview with SavingAdvice reporter Max Erkiletian, said he cannot predict whether the Cassidy-Durbin Promise Act — a measure to make the Senate review funding plans before a shortfall — will pass. “It is the bare minimum to ask of Congress to at least consider the things that have already been proposed,” Cassidy said. “I don’t know if we get it done, but that’s a condemnation of Congress if we can’t.”
What To Do Now
Before October, log into your my Social Security account at ssa.gov and confirm the benefit on file. If you are still working and under full retirement age, track your 2026 earnings against the $24,480 limit so a surprise withholding letter does not land in January. If your 2025 income was unusually high, assume IRMAA may apply in 2027 and look up the current brackets so the surcharge is not a January shock.
Don’t change the age at which you can claim Social Security. The COLA will apply regardless of the age you claim.
The Bottom Line
The working estimate for the 2027 Social Security COLA is 3.4% on the average retired-worker check – which is roughly $71 to $75 a month. Medicare Part B is projected to take back about $6.60. Groceries and housing will take some of the rest. The official number arrives
Oct. 14.
Editor’s Note: Artificial intelligence was used to create an initial draft of this article. All facts have been checked by a human and the opinions and recommendations are the authors’ own.
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